The rise of the Green Party under its radical new leader Zack Polanski, its resounding victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election and its astounding support level among younger voters is one of the big new stories in British politics.
This report fields a new survey to investigate why the Green Party appeals so strongly to young voters. The survey oversamples younger and left-leaning voters to explore their worldview and voting patterns. Beyond this, the study considers what the rise of the new Green vote portends for the next election and the long-term future of British politics.
The report finds that young people are considerably more likely than their elders to identify as far left, and that young leftists are far more inclined to vote Green than older leftists. ‘Generation Woke’ does a better job of explaining young leftism than ‘Generation Rent.’ That is, cultural progressive attitudes such as endorsing transwomen in women’s sports help to explain young leftism. Materialist concerns such as being unable to afford a house or endorsing higher taxes and spending are less prominent. While the cost of living is the most important issue for young people, it is also a top issue for most voters and therefore a competence question which is less party-positional. Cultural issues are lower-ranked in importance but more positional and closely associated with strong left-wing ideology, which is the most important correlate of Green voting.
Young leftists are more Green-inclined not just because they are more left-wing but because they have not formed attachments to Labour the way older leftists have and are more likely to view the ruling party as responsible for the country’s problems. We see something similar on the right in other countries where younger voters are more likely than their elders to vote for national populists over established conservatives.
While the Green Party is unlikely to win the next election, cohort change in the coming decades could carry them toward the centre of power. By 2036 or 2046 the left-wing cast of Britain’s younger electorate may well alter the country’s natural party of government from a right-wing party, as has been the case in the past, to a left-wing one, as in Canada.